{"id":135,"date":"2026-04-08T18:08:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T23:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/?p=135"},"modified":"2026-04-08T18:08:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T23:08:05","slug":"el-alto-al-fuego-es-una-ilusion-y-esta-es-la-razon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/?p=135","title":{"rendered":"El alto al fuego es una ilusi\u00f3n \u2014 y esta es la raz\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\" src=\"https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/images.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-136\" style=\"width:534px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/images.jpeg 275w, https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/images-18x12.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Lo que se presenta como una tregua es, en realidad, una pausa t\u00e1ctica en una confrontaci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s profunda. Y en el centro, el estrecho de Ormuz se convierte en el punto donde no solo se define un conflicto regional, sino el control del sistema energ\u00e9tico y econ\u00f3mico global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El supuesto alto al fuego mediado por Pakist\u00e1n es, en la pr\u00e1ctica, papel mojado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No hay voluntad real de detener el conflicto. Y menos a\u00fan de cumplir lo acordado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Israel no tiene ning\u00fan incentivo para frenar su ofensiva. Su objetivo no es negociar: es debilitar a Ir\u00e1n hasta el punto de hacerlo inviable como actor regional. Y lo est\u00e1 dejando claro al mantener ataques en distintos frentes, bombardeando L\u00edbano incluso mientras se habla de tregua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Del otro lado, Ir\u00e1n tampoco est\u00e1 negociando desde la debilidad. Est\u00e1 imponiendo condiciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Y no son menores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Control del estrecho de Ormuz, retirada de bases estadounidenses, fin de las operaciones israel\u00edes, levantamiento total de sanciones y reconocimiento de su programa nuclear. Es una lista de exigencias que, en t\u00e9rminos pr\u00e1cticos, equivalen a una redefinici\u00f3n del equilibrio de poder en Medio Oriente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Estados Unidos e Israel no van a aceptar eso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pero tampoco pueden ignorar la capacidad de presi\u00f3n de Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Porque la clave no est\u00e1 en los misiles. Est\u00e1 en el petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ormuz no es un detalle geogr\u00e1fico. Es el cuello de botella por donde pasa una parte cr\u00edtica de la energ\u00eda global. Y Teher\u00e1n sabe que puede convertir ese punto en un arma econ\u00f3mica de escala mundial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eso cambia todo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aqu\u00ed no hay espacio para soluciones r\u00e1pidas ni para acuerdos estables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lo que viene es m\u00e1s escalada, m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n y un conflicto que empieza a golpear directamente a la econom\u00eda global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La narrativa de contenci\u00f3n se cay\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Esto ya no es una crisis regional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Es una disputa abierta por el control del sistema.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lo que se presenta como una tregua es, en realidad, una pausa t\u00e1ctica en una confrontaci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s profunda. Y en el centro, el estrecho de Ormuz se convierte en el punto donde no solo se define un conflicto regional, sino el control del sistema energ\u00e9tico y econ\u00f3mico global. El supuesto alto al fuego mediado [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[20,21,23,22,27,82,24,25],"class_list":["post-135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mundo","tag-donald-trump","tag-ee-uu","tag-guerra","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-libano","tag-medio-oriente","tag-petroleo"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El alto al fuego es una ilusi\u00f3n \u2014 y esta es la raz\u00f3n - hassannassar.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hassannassar.com\/?p=135\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El alto al fuego es una ilusi\u00f3n \u2014 y esta es la raz\u00f3n - hassannassar.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lo que se presenta como una tregua es, en realidad, una pausa t\u00e1ctica en una confrontaci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s profunda. 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